File Name: nate silver signal and the noise .zip
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Look Inside. Sep 27, Minutes Buy. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Pick up the key ideas in the book with this quick summary. Even worse, experts tend to be fairly confident about the quality of their predictions despite historical data showing the opposite. This book summary will outline the difficulties in predicting economic development and in locating the few pieces of key information — i. In our everyday lives, we make decisions based on predictions of what will happen in the future, like whether it will rain or shine. But predictions are also common in the public realm: stock market analysts, meteorologists and sports commentators all make a living out of them.
September 25 , Volume Number 18 , page 30 - 31 [Free]. Join NursingCenter to get uninterrupted access to this Article. At the heart of both successful clinical diagnosis and medical research is the ability to distinguish the useful from the extraneous-the signal from the noise. Medicine has long labored with the difficulties this distinction demands and has continuously searched for better tools to optimize this task. Currently the focus is on the use of powerful computers and Watson-like technology to improve success rates. Nathaniel "Nate" Silver in his book The Signal and the Noise brings a very different and refreshing perspective on the subject of predictions.
Look Inside. Sep 27, Minutes Buy. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones.
Although we become accustomed to predictions and take them for granted, the ordinary person gives them little thought although they can greatly impact their lives. This is especially true when bad data leads to even worse predictions. Financial forecasting which is risky because of the volatile and dynamic nature of economics led to some bad decisions and behavior which eventually resulted in the Great Recession of , the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. We take for granted the forecasts about temperature and rain and snow and don't realize the effort and data that goes into the prediction models and are unaware how weather forecasting has been developed and honed over the years to become one of the most successful forecasting methodologies of all time. Silver describes how he was bored with his first job as an economic consultant when he first got out of college and became intrigued with poker.
Silver, Nate. The signal and the noise: why most predictions fail but some don't / Nate Silver. elizabethsid.org
Nate Silver has lived a preposterously interesting life. In , while toiling away as a lowly consultant for the accounting firm KPMG, he hatched a revolutionary method for predicting the performance of baseball players, which the Web site Baseball Prospectus subsequently acquired. His annual poker winnings soon ran into the six-figures.
The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash , poker, and weather forecasting. It dropped to No. The Signal and the Noise print edition was named Amazon's No.
Audible Premium Plus. Cancel anytime. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters.
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