File Name: china pakistan economic corridor and its implications .zip
Five years later, a quarter of announced projects have been completed, energy projects dominate, and industrialization efforts are lagging, according to data collected by the CSIS Reconnecting Asia Project and made available to the public here.
Metrics details. Provincial connectivity and growth are connected to visualization of mutual progress and economic development. This paper proposes to illuminate the significant Geo-strategic importance, opportunities and challenges for China Pakistan Economic Corridor, and it envisages to broaden the base, by including energy rich, Tajikistan economic role model Turkey and strategically located Iran. Hence, this paper provides a holistic view of previous researches on the planned subject and is not involving any data analysis as existing researches had used for analyzing a review of prospects and challenges. Transportation plays a key role in developing a country.
Download PDF. A short summary of this paper. Analysis of the Strategic Implications. Although Xi Jinping's China wants to appear as a responsible global power by pursuing a non-coercive and peaceful initiative, the expansion of Chinese influence in Eurasia may represent the birth of a new revisionist power of the current international order, which could represent a serious threat to American hegemony Zhu, , para 2.
Moreover, the enhanced cooperation between China andPakistan, which has emerged in the latest years, could have several consequences on the international relations and foreign policies of the main actors of Central and South Asia, shaking the geopolitical balances of the entire region. Structured in several short paragraphs, this paper attempts to take a closer look at the CPEC from a geopolitical perspective and expound the major strategic implications of the project for the People's Republic of China and its allies and rivals in Central and South Asia.
Mahan, Halford J. Mackinder, NicholasSpykman, Zbigniew Brzezinskihave identified the strategic centrality of Eurasia;so, an enquiry into the importance and scope of the BRI and its different economic corridorsin the present case, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC necessitates a closer look at some of the classical geopolitical theories to discern the imperatives which have prompted China to realize such a colossal project centered in Eurasia.
A hasty assessment of these geopolitical theories may lead to the conclusion that they are outdated or otherwise not relevant for the purposes of this paper. However, regardless of their different premises and conclusions, all these theories tend to converge towards a highly relevant point for the present discussion: the geostrategic centrality of the Eurasian continent in international politics. As stated by Saran , China was strongly influenced by both Mahan's and Mackinder's theories and is currently aiming to create a "continental-maritime geo- According to Lukin , the People's Republic of China is definitely followingMackinder's theoretical guidelines and developing a sort of "offensive rail" through the expansion of its railway network not only within its vast territory, but also towards the outside.
As an example, in January the Chinese government announced the construction of a high-speed railway lineabout 7. The assumption is that the United States, with its unsurpassed naval capacity, can effectively paralyze the maritime periphery of the Chinese geo-economic regime, but on the contrary can hardly assault the territorial epicentre of Chinawhich is a part of Mackinder's Heartlandsince it is landlocked and consequently much easier to defend for a mainly terrestrial power like China compared to the American power based instead on sea power Lukin, Indeed, Beijing has been attracted to the commercial port of Gwadar primarily because of its proximity to the Straits of Hormuzthe vital waterway for the Persian Gulfthrough which most of their energy imports flow; Gwadar will provide a port for both the exporting of Chinese goods and the offloading of Chinese energy imports, which will then be transported overland through Pakistan into China, avoiding further maritime transport.
In order to understand the scope of the CPEC and analyse its strategic implications, it's important to define the concept of economic corridor. The Asian Development Bank ADB defines the economic corridors as "important networks or connections between economic agents along a defined geography, which provide connection between economic nodes or hubs, usually centered in urban landscapes, in which large amount of economic resources and actors are concentrated; they link the supply and demand sides of markets" Brunner, In recent years, many Asian countries have tried, with mixed results, to reduce political fragmentation, social schisms, religious divisions and, in general, endemic conflicts among the major economies of the region.
In this context, the concept of economic corridor has been a great success, because, by definition, it tends to attract foreign economic investments in infrastructures in the countries involved in the initiative, increasing regional interconnectivity Safitri, However, the realization of an economic corridor has also inevitable strategic implications that can alter the status quo of the region concerned, by increasing the conflict between the main regional and international actors that gravitate around the area.
The case of the CPEC is no exception. Consequently, an examination of the reaction of these countries to Chinese expansionism in Eurasia will help to analyse the geo-strategic consequences of this project. According to Lin , the biggest advantage for Chinawhich could make the implementation of the BRI relatively easy, or at least without too many complicationsis represented by the existence of institutional agreements and other forms of understanding with some of the main key players in the area, as well as their geographical proximity to the promoter country of the initiative.
Therefore, it's no coincidence that the People's Republic of China is orientating its foreign policy in the region according to two main directives. On the one hand, becoming a sort of economic benefactor for many of these countries, in order to exert its influence on the opinion of their respective governments on the most important regional issues.
On the other hand, becoming member of regional associations and organizations considered of particular importance for promoting and safeguardingChinese strategic interests Kaczmarski, Specifically, the fear of New Delhi is that the conferment of a full membership to the Chinese giant could lead to the birth of a Sino-Pakistan axis, capable of challenging its current political-economic dominance within the SAARC.
Aware of China's attraction to the countries of the regiondue to its greater economic resources and its willingness to invest -India fears that other permanent members of the organization, under the influence of both China and Pakistan, will unite to oppose the economic-strategic interests of the country Khaniejo, More generally, beyond the SAARC, the Indian government is particularly apprehensive about the strong approach of Beijing to Islamabad, because it could alter the strategic balance in South Asia to its detriment.
According to Choudhry gain access to the transit network in Central Asia; outsmart its rival Pakistan in its own backyard; counteract the imminent Chinese rise in South Asia Taylor, However, it's good to remember that Iran has participated in similar negotiations with the Chinese People's Republic in the last few years, while Pakistan is trying to reach an agreement with the Tehran government to obtain a substantial gas supply for the foreseeable future.
For instance, in a meeting held in Tehran in January between Chinese president Xi Jinping and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, China has pledged to invest approximately billion dollars in the country over the next ten years Bokhari, Furthermore, Afghanistan has repeatedly expressed its enthusiasm for its possible participation in the CPEC, in order to become a strategic junction that directly links the Sino-Pakistani initiative to Central Asia through the construction of communication and transit infrastructures on its territory Singh, In light of these considerations, the creation of a strong Indo-Iranian strategic partnership, capable of countering the Sino-Pakistani alliance, is quite unlikely, since the Teheran government seems to be pointing towards the construction of a heterogeneous network of alliances that would include the People's Republic of China and perhaps Pakistan itself.
Consequently, due to these objective difficulties, the strategy developed by New Delhi to counteract Chinese expansionism in SouthAsia should be at least partially reformulated, perhaps focusing on strengthening cooperation with the United States and Japantwo countries that share the same fear about the rise of China as a hegemonic power in the region.
In turn, the Russian involvement in the huge Chinese project will probably depend on how much Russia and China will be able to find a consensus about the creation of a consortium among the different organizations, associations and international projects that embrace the heart of Eurasia. According to Kaczmarski , if China manages to convince Russia that it's not a zero-sum game, but rather a positive-sum game where no one wins at someone else's expense, then the Russian Federation could allow the EUU and its institutions to be used for the establishment of a common communication and transit network between the People's Republic of China and the member countries of the EEU.
Above all, revolutionizing the current world trade system and integrating the global economy through transregional connectivity and mutual cooperation to achieve the common goal of a G-Zero World Bremmer, Initially, also due to the geographical distance that separates the country from the region involved, the Russian Federation has been substantially indifferent to the implementation of the CPEC by China and Pakistan.
However, in the last years the Kremlin has been increasingly interested in the Sino-Pakistani initiative, as evidenced by the statement issued in December by the Russian ambassador to Pakistan Alexey Dedov: "Russia strongly supports the China-Pakistan EconomicCorridor project as it is crucial for Pakistan's economy and regional connectivity" Arshad, According to R.
In light of American foreign policy towards Asia, many observers have even claimed that the Belt and Road Initiative BRI was nothing more than a direct response from Beijing to the Washington's attempt to rebalance Strategy essentially incorporates both premises and objectives of the Rebalance to Asia Policy, but extends the concept of security thought by Americans for Asia-Pacific also to the Indian Ocean, thus recognizing the need to create a single strategic system for both regions due to the progressive Chinese penetration in the aforementioned area Valencia, According to Bhatti , the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC is certainly a source of concern for the Washington government, because it will provide to China a double sea access for all seasonson one side, the complex of sea ports in Chinese territory; on the other side, the Pakistani port of Gwadarthus drastically reducing its dependence on transits in the Strait of Malacca, which is located in a region where the maritime force and American influence are preponderant.
In other words, by solving the Malacca dilemma, China will increase its relative power towards the United States in Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean, making it more difficult to contain Chinese expansionism for the American power.
Therefore, from the point of view of Washington, the CPEC appears as an infrastructure project that will have a significant negative impact on the American maritime strategy of containing China within its current borders, since it will make the Asian giant less vulnerable to its predominance of the seas. As regards the alliance system in the region, the strong agreement between the People's Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistana nuclear power and the second country in the world by Muslim populationis very worrying.
Indeed, the realization of the CPEC and the synergy created in recent years betweenBeijing and Islamabad could represent the definitive sunset of the traditional relations between the United States and Pakistan. These relations were marked by an important tactical alliance in the framework of the Operation Enduring Freedom OEF and the subsequent Operation Freedom's Sentinel OFS in Afghanistan, but often characterized by a deep mutual distrust Cecinini, Specifically, if the American president Donald Trump really plans to take a tougher stance towards Islamabad, the United States risks losing an important supply route for its military contingent to Afghanistan.
This would lead to a shift in world governance from the West to the East. The Belt and Road Initiative BRI , which consists of many communication and transit infrastructures projects, can be interpreted as an instrument of the Beijing government to expand its influence in Central, South and Southeast Asia; in other words, it's an expansionist initiative capable of constituting a serious threat to American hegemony and the geopolitical balances of the whole region.
Despite the governments of Beijing and Islamabad continue to claim that the project is nothing more than an economic corridor and therefore limited to the economic sphere and the promotion of regional connectivity, India and the United States consider instead the CPEC a sort of camouflage and believe that its true purpose is mainly strategic-military. Specifically, New Delhi considers this project part of a Sino-Pakistani strategy aimed at encircling the country and limiting its sphere of influence, thus determining the birth of an Indian encirclement syndrome.
If it is trueas Henry Kissinger often repeatedthat nations have no permanent friends or enemies but only interests, then the People's Republic of China will always pursue a policy that best serves its national interests.
In the meanwhile, Pakistan has sided with China, in order to obtain a very special role in the geopolitics of the Asian continent. However, the risk is a sharp increase of conflict in the entire region. Source: Council on Foreign Relations. On the one hand, the great increase in military spending over the last decade inevitably gives the impression that the Asian giant aims to replace the United States as the world's largest military power.
On the other hand, China wants to counter the Rebalance to Asia Policy initiated by the Barack Obama administrationa policy of containment even expanded by the Donald Trump administration with the new Free and Open As one of the great examples of the current Chinese expansionism, this ambitious initiative aims to restore the ancient Silk Road by connecting Europe, Asia and Africa through the realization of many transcontinental communication projects, both by land and sea.
Indeed, the successful completion of the CPEC could bring many economic and strategic advantages to both parties involvedfor instance, it could finally solve one of the main strategic problems for China: the Malacca dilemma.
On that occasion, the two parties signed the fundamental Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation for the Long-Term Plan on the China-PakistanEconomic Corridor, which claimed, among other things, the birth of an "unbreakable partnership" between the two countries Tiezzi, After further preliminary agreements, in April the Chinese president Xi Jinping signed a total of fifty-one economic-commercial agreements with his Pakistani counterpart.
According to these agreements, the People's Republic of China pledge to finance a series of long-term infrastructure projects in Pakistaninitially worth of about 46 billion dollarslinking their economies and underscoring China's economic and political ambitions in Asia and beyond I. Haider, The investments for the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC were progressively increased over the years, reaching approximately 65 billion dollars in April Siddiqui, As explained before, the commercial port of Gwadar has an immense importance for China, due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuzwhich is a strategic maritimepassage for world trade and oil transportation from the Middle East, as it connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
The development of the Pakistani port of Gwadar and the construction of the CPEC would provide to China a much faster and safer way of transportation than the traditional sea routeabout It's no coincidence that in February , even before the signing of the memorandum of understanding on the implementation of the CPEC in May , China and Pakistan had reached a forty-year agreement to entrust management, development and control of the aforementioned port to China Overseas Port Holding Company COPHC , directly controlled by the People's Republic of China Raza, The importance of the Pakistani port of Gwadar is also evidenced by the recent project to build a Chinese base in Jiwanionly about 80 kilometres awayto protect Beijing's large investment in the region.
Within the immense framework of the BRI, of all the economic corridors, the CPEC is probably the safest one, because it involves only one partner countrythe Islamic Republic of Pakistanwith which the Chinese giant has established an "allweather relationship", while the other corridors span different countries belonging to different regions that don't have such solid relationships with Beijing Ali, In general, the Beijing government is well aware that Pakistan's strategic position at the threshold of China, Middle East, Central Asia and South Asiamakes it a country with immense potential to become an economic nerve center, connecting all these regions in terms of trade and transportation and transforming the geo-strategic landscape of the whole area Siddique, However, the implementation of the CPC and the Sino-Pakistani alliance could have significant repercussions on the entire region.
Moreover, the recent project to build a Chinese military base in Jiwani to protect the commercial port of Gwadar has shown how far the synergy between the two countries can go. Therefore, it's not surprising that the CPECwhich is undoubtedly the greatest symbol of the growing friendship between China and Pakistanis seen by New Delhi as part of a larger joint strategy to counterbalance the Indian influence in South Asia.
The Gilgit-Baltistan issue is currently one the main local challenges that both Beijing and Islamabad have to face in order to achieve the complete realization of the project.
In response to the Indian governmentwhich has repeatedly accused China of fuelling geopolitical tensions throughout the Kashmir region with the choice of such a controversial course -Beijing has repeatedly argued that the CPEC is an economic initiative "that is not relevant to disputes over territorial sovereignty" and that this project doesn't affect its position on the so-called Kashmir issue, which according to China should be solved through bilateral negotiations between India and Pakistan Laskar, At the same time, India has to counter the progressive Chinese maritime penetration in the Indian Ocean, represented by the attempt by the Beijing government to develop the so-called String of Pearls, which is part of the larger project of the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road.
As stated by Taylor , India is currently attempting to counter China's expansionism in South Asia and pursuing its economic and strategic interests in the region by seeking a privileged relationship with Iran, which is facing the new sanctions imposed by the main Western powers. The approach of New Delhi to Teheran is evidenced by the huge Indian funding, approved since May , for the development of the commercial port of Chabaharlocated in the Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan, in front of the Gulf of Oman and only about kilometres from the Pakistani port of Gwadar.
The realization of this infrastructure project and the development of the port of Chabahar are of fundamental importance for India, because they would allow it to reach Iran and Afghanistan directly, bypassing Pakistan. More generally, this picture shows that India's strategic objectives are: strengthen and extend its influence on Afghanistan; since the time of Tsar Peter the Great. For its part, Pakistan could welcome one hand, Islamabad is interested in strengthening its position in the region, especially against India, by linking itself to another nuclear powerat a time when its relations with the United States seem at historic lows.
On the other hand, Pakistan could benefit from the economic revenues obtained by granting Russia the use of the commercial port of Gwadar and the consequent direct involvement of the Eurasian power in the implementation of the CPEC Hussein, Even the Beijing government could welcome a direct Russian involvement in the projecton condition that China maintains its privileged position within the CPECbecause such a move would strengthen Pakistan to counterbalance the Indian influence in South Asia.
From this point of view, relations between Moscow and Islamabad are still in an initial state, but the Russian Federation seems to have already moved to take advantage of the geostrategic position of the Islamic country through a series of infrastructure investments on its territory. For instance, in October Russia signed an agreement with Pakistan, pledging to invest about 2 billion dollars for the construction of the Karachi-Lahore LNG Pipeline, about 1.
As stated by N. Khan , if well designed, this possible triangular relationship between China, Pakistan and Russia in Central and South Asia would have the potential to shake the balance of power in the whole region, because each of these countries enjoys a particular important resource.
Specifically, the People's Republic of China has great influence and economic power on a global level; the Russian Federation stands out in the information warfare; the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is placed in a geostrategic position of fundamental importance.
As a result, if Russia decides to invest further substantial resources in infrastructure development and strengthening the internal security of Pakistan and the former Soviet Republics, and if China has no objections to this by maintaining control of the project, it cannot be excluded that one day the CPEC will become a segment of a hypothetical Russia-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor RCPEC.
Indeed, in recent years the United States has greatly increased cooperation with a large number of countries in the region, particularly with Japan and India. Moreover, in the same period the United States and Japan have increased their naval presence in Asia-Pacific, both for the worrying and impressive escalation of Chinese military spending, and for the now manifest desire of the People's Republic of China to acquire more sea power in order to prevent access to the American fleet to the East and South China Sea Shimodaira, Prior to its abandonment by the Donald Trump administration in January , one of the most important instruments of this policy was the Trans-Pacific Partnership TTP , which would have led to the creation of enhanced economic cooperation with many emerging countries of the Asia-Pacific region, in order to reduce the dependence of the signatory States from the Chinese trade and to bring them closer to the American power Rabena,
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express its forthright opposition to CPEC, condemning projects in the Gilgit-Baltistan region domestic discourse on the significance of CPEC for China.
Я, кажется, догадалась, - сказала. - Вы хотите, чтобы я проникла в секретную базу данных ARA и установила личность Северной Дакоты. Стратмор улыбнулся, не разжимая губ. - Вы читаете мои мысли, мисс Флетчер.
Хейл очень опасен. Он… Но Стратмор растворился в темноте. Сьюзан поспешила за ним, пытаясь увидеть его силуэт.
Она металась между дверцами кабинок и рукомойниками. Потеряв ориентацию, двигалась, вытянув перед собой руки и пытаясь восстановить в памяти очертания комнаты. Споткнулась о мусорный бачок и едва не наткнулась на кафельную стенку. Ведя рукой по прохладному кафелю, она наконец добралась до двери и нащупала дверную ручку. Дверь отворилась, и Сьюзан вышла в помещение шифровалки. Здесь она снова замерла. Все выглядело совсем не так, как несколько минут .
Помнишь, что случилось в прошлом году, когда Стратмор занимался антисемитской террористической группой в Калифорнии? - напомнила. Бринкерхофф кивнул. Это было одним из крупнейших достижений Стратмора.
Бледная, жуткая в тусклом свете мониторов фигура застыла, грудь шефа тяжело вздымалась. - Ком… мандер! - вскрикнула она от неожиданности. - Хейл в Третьем узле.
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